Regionalization of Epidemic Diseases - U.S. Policy Tested

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Originally from: Farmtalking

Swine Fever

October 22, 2003 — Michael Meredith (ed. Harry Snelson)

Prior to 1997 there was a general international policy of stigmatizing any country as "infected" if it experienced one or more outbreaks of internationally notifiable (OIE list A) epidemic disease. The "List A" diseases include Foot and mouth disease, Swine vesicular disease, Classical swine fever, African swine fever and Highly pathogenic strains of influenza.

However, there was a growing international awareness by 1997 that, in the light of the increasing efficiency of animal health surveillance and the increasingly reliable recording of animal movements, to stigmatize an entire country as "infected" could result in unjustifiable hardship for farmers, meat traders and seedstock companies.

In October 1997 U.S. policy on the banning of imports from infected countries was revised in the form of new regulations entitled "Importation of Animals and Animal Products; Procedures for Requesting Recognition of Regions" which was published in conjunction with new U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) policy on "regionalization" of disease outbreaks. "Regionalization" is the identification of regions within countries as being potentially infected areas rather than labelling an entire country as potentially infected. The new policy allowed the possibility, if risk assessment studies were favourable, of banning imports of live animals and animal products from only a limited "at risk" area of a country, as opposed to an entire country.

In furtherance of the change in international perspectives on epidemics, a Veterinary Equivalency Agreement (VEA) was signed by the United States and the European Union (EU), to include provision for the recognition of regionalization decisions taken by either party with respect to certain diseases.

Test Case for Swine Disease
Inevitably there came a landmark test case in swine for the new U.S. policy, and this was the series of outbreaks of Classical swine fever (CSF) in the East Anglia region of Britain in the year 2000. APHIS undertook a risk assessment and decided to allow a request from Britain to restrict the ban on imports of live swine and pork to only the East Anglia region, and not to the entire nation of Britain.

The APHIS decision was severely criticized at the time, but the policy and risk assessment were defended. APHIS commented "We took action at a regional level in the case of East Anglia because we believed that the disease situation warranted it. We already had extensive information about the region, including information on the authority, organization, and infrastructure of the veterinary services organization of the region; the extent to which movement of animals and animal products is controlled from regions of higher risk, and the level of biosecurity for such movements; livestock demographics and marketing practices in the region; the type and extent of disease surveillance conducted in the region; diagnostic laboratory capabilities in the region; and the region's policies and infrastructure for animal disease control, i.e., the region's emergency response capacity. This information provided the basis for our previous recognition of the region as free of the disease. Our obligations under international trade agreements compel us to take no more restrictive actions than necessary to prevent the introduction of disease. Unless we determine that this information is no longer reliable, it should provide a rational basis for believing that the region can effectively control an outbreak within a smaller region."

On October 16th 2003, APHIS finally lifted the ban on imports from East Anglia saying "We are amending the regulations governing the importation of certain animals, meat, and other animal products by restoring East Anglia, a region of England that includes the counties of Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk, to the list of regions considered free of classical swine fever. This final rule follows an interim rule that removed East Anglia from that list due to the detection of classical swine fever in that region. Based on the results of an evaluation of the current classical swine fever situation in East Anglia, we have determined that East Anglia can be restored to the list of regions considered to be free of classical swine fever. This rule relieves certain classical swine fever-related prohibitions and restrictions on importation of swine and swine products into the United States from East Anglia.

Events have proved the APHIS policy and risk assessment in 2000 to be well-founded. There were 16 outbreaks of CSF in East Anglia in 2000, but the disease never did spread beyond the region of East Anglia.

U.S. Trade with the Pig Industry of East Anglia
East Anglia is the second-largest pork-producing region of Great Britain (i.e. England, Wales, Scotland). It is also the region with a large proportion of swine kept outdoors. The year 2000 outbreaks of CSF began on an outdoor breeding unit. The source was never proven, but suspected to be uncooked or poorly-cooked imported pigmeat fed to an outdoor group of pigs – possibly fed as titbits, or as food waste discarded by a passer-by.

APHIS say "We do not have specific information on the level of swine or pork products imported from East Anglia before that region was removed from the list of regions considered free of CSF in August 2000. However, an indication of the level of imports from East Anglia that may result once the region is again considered CSF-free can be acquired by comparing imports of swine and pork products from the United Kingdom prior to and during the period of East Anglia's restriction. Average annual imports from the United Kingdom including East Anglia for the 3-year period 1997–1999 are compared to average annual imports from the United Kingdom excluding East Anglia for the 2-year period 2001–2002."

"During 1997–1999, the number of swine imported from the United Kingdom averaged 249 per year, and represented about 0.01 percent of average U.S. imports of 3.8 million swine per year. The average annual value of swine imported from the United Kingdom was about $123,000, or about 0.05 percent of the average annual value of all swine imports ($265 million). The average price of swine imported from the United Kingdom during the period 1997–1999 was much higher than the average price of all swine imports ($567 per animal compared to $72 per animal), reflecting their value as breeding stock rather than slaughter stock. U.S. Census Bureau statistics indicate that 93 purebred breeding swine were imported from the United Kingdom in 1999, but that none were imported in 1997 or 1998. However, the average price paid for swine imported from the United Kingdom during the period 1997–1999 clearly suggests that animals classified as non-purebred breeding swine were imported for breeding purposes."

"During 2001–2002, there were no swine imports from the United Kingdom. If all swine imported from the United Kingdom during 1997–1999 came, in fact, from East Anglia, then a similar number, if not more, can be expected to be imported once East Anglia is again considered CSF-free. Total annual imports from all sources in 2001–2002 increased to over 5.5 million swine. While the effect of renewed swine imports from East Anglia will be small in terms of its percentage share of swine imported by the United States, the high average price during 1997–1999 suggests that future imports may again help serve breeding demands of U.S. swine operations."

"A similar comparison of pork product imports from the United Kingdom over the two time periods can be used in considering the impact of renewed importation of these commodities from East Anglia. During 1997–1999, the quantity of pork products imported from the United Kingdom averaged about 3.5 million kilograms per year, and represented about 1.55 percent of average U.S. imports of 225 million kilograms per year. Their average annual value was about $13 million, or about 2.76 percent of the average annual value of all product imports of $476 million."

"During 2001–2002, there was a significant decline in the quantity of pork products imported from the United Kingdom, to about 509,400 kilograms per year, while total U.S. pork imports increased to 346 million kilograms per year. The United Kingdom's share of total imports fell to 0.15 percent, one-tenth of its share during 1997–1999. The average annual value was about $1.8 million, or about 0.24 percent of the average annual value of all pork product imports of $745 million (again, one-tenth of the United Kingdom's share during 1997–1999). The dramatic increase in annual pork product imports by the United States from the period 1997–1999 to the period 2001–2002--from 225 million kilograms to 346 million kilograms – contributed to the large percentage decline in imports from the United Kingdom."

"If the decline in pork product imports from the United Kingdom was caused by the restrictions placed upon imports from East Anglia, then removal of those restrictions can be expected to result in a percentage share of U.S. imports for the United Kingdom similar to that acquired during 1997–1999, about 1.6 percent of total pork product imports by quantity and 2.8 percent by value. Based on the average annual level of total pork product imports during 2001–2002, these percentages represent about 5.4 million kilograms, valued at about $21 million."

"Imports of swine and pork products from the United Kingdom are likely to expand once East Anglia is again considered CSF-free. The expansion could be noteworthy for the United Kingdom if exports to the United States return to the levels seen during 1997–1999: Breeding swine exports in the hundreds of animals per year where currently there are none, and an increase in pork product exports by a factor of 10. The economic effects will not be significant for U.S. entities. As a percentage of overall U.S. imports, the United Kingdom's supply of swine and pork products during 1997–1999 was small. Similar export levels can be expected to result from this rule."

"Swine and pork producers and pork product wholesalers are the U.S. entities that may be affected by this rule. The Small Business Administration (SBA) has established size standards for determining which entities can be considered small, using the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). The SBA defines small hog and pig farms as those earning not more than $750,000 in annual receipts. National Agricultural Statistics Service data on hog farm inventories include farm size categories, among others, with minimums of 2,000 and 5,000 head. Only those swine operations with inventories well in excess of 3,000 animals would likely earn more than $750,000 in annual sales. Over 95 percent of U.S. swine operations hold inventories of fewer than 2,000 head. Thus, most swine and pork producers can be considered small entities based on SBA standards."

Weblinks:
Federal Register: October 16, 2003 Volume 68, Number 200 "Change in Disease Status of East Anglia With Regard to Classical Swine Fever":

http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/14mar20010800/edocket.access.gpo.gov/2003/03–26042.htm

Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in UK – Contingency Plans 2003 and History of a series of outbreaks in 2000:

http://www.pighealth.com/csf.htm

Originally from: Pat Gardiner

That's the whole point. The US did not have the information. They were lied to by the British Government in the shape of Maff and later Defra.

Like everyone else they were conned. The State Veterinary Service, who it seems could not tell CSF from PDNS, were faking everything in sight and threatening anyone who stood in their way. What the US embassy needs to do is to go to the House of Lords and excercise their rights to examine the evidence to the Agriculture Select Committee in December 2000. There they will find a submission by George Patrick Gardiner. (not printed to save printing costs – one A4 page)

Then they need to ask a simple question. "What was done about this?"

They can check on the witness through their own Pentagon files...former United States Line agent (1972) and Sealift Military Command agent (MSTMS) – (1968)also stopped embargoed nuclear missile targeting computer from reaching Bulgaria during the Cold War. (1987) This was US equipment that the Bulgarian Communist regime were trying to buy in Britain and ship out via Felixstowe.

Here is the reference to check and arrange inspection: http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm200001/cmselect/cmagric/32/3208.htm

Yep folks, I'm the real thing – and I caught the bad guys red handed.....Britain's infamous State Veterinary Service.....and did something about it.

Red faces in Washington's Agriculture Department I think.

Sorry about that Mike!!! But in fairness it was Dr. Meredith that originally told the world that the two diseases were easily confused (go check his site)

The truth will out in the end.

Regards Pat Gardiner

snip<

Author wrote:
Swine Fever
snip< We already had extensive information about the region, including information on the authority, organization, and infrastructure of the veterinary services organization of the region; the extent to which movement of animals and animal products is controlled from regions of higher risk, and the level of biosecurity for such movements; livestock demographics and marketing practices in the region; the type and extent of disease surveillance conducted in the region; diagnostic laboratory capabilities in the region; and the region's policies and infrastructure for animal disease control, i.e., the region's emergency response capacity.