FMD Theory From Kansas - "The Masked Benefactor"

Originally from: Burkie
                        
Dear Joyce and Farmtalking Friends:

Yes, I think you have "just about got it", but I would add that it's also known as "Market Manipulation by design," with the purpose of capitalizing that manipulation for immediate capital gain.

My neighbor has been in the cattle business all his life....he is now in his 70's. Last night, he drove into my driveway to stop in for a quick visit. This man has fed thousands of cattle, operated two livestock auction markets, operated a commercial cattle feedyard, bought and sold cattle on order for customers for over 40 years.

He said he had sold a pen of "plain fat cattle" this past week for $89.50 per cwt...which means that these cattle brought over $US 1,200.00 per head on the hoof...and that that was the highest price he'd ever received in all his years of trading cattle.

Then, last week, another friend of mine that feeds cattle for himself, to grow and sell as "fats," asked me to go to a special calf sale, so we did. We saw a group of really nice Angus/Hereford crossbred steers aka "Black Baldies" weighing 662 pounds bring a gross dollar of $702.50/head. That's the most I've ever personally see steers that size ever sell for.

Now then, don't forget, after the UK FMD outbreak, we had a "false alarm" reported outbreak, here in Kansas; following that false alarm, fat cattle traded down to as low as $62.00/cwt...and it took over six months to get the price level back up to the $70.00 level. So, looking back up to the previous paragraph, that means that a calf is now bringing what a "fat" did, just a little over a year ago.

Don't forget, we've had four back-to-back years of drought...so cow herd numbers were reduced, too...because hay was scarce, a lot of the older folks that had cow herds liquidated them, and they quit.

By participating with this group, we all have been informed of all kinds of animal disease outbreaks or non-infected countries that have used that type of information to affect export beef prices.

So, what I am trying to impart, (which you've already grasped) is that the news media blasts of a disease somewhere in this-or-that country, has absolutely, most definitely been used to create demand for beef....with the blessings and trappings of animal disease regulatory agencies world-wide, and with the full blessings of the Free Trade proponents who constantly "harp" how important it is to have the mis-nomer of "Free Trade."

Just look at this Canadian BSE situation...a dodgy one cow, with no visibly-expressed symptoms of Mad Cow, questionable time lapse for a UK lab to be used to test her brains, and a slapped-down ban on Canadian Beef imports into the U.S.A....with cattle prices rising over $10.00/cwt., here, since that time...a Japanese ban on Canadian beef imports...and Canadian cattlemens "shorts-in-knots" (and Canadian government, too) about how to get this all corrected, while the poor Canadian cattlemen go broke!

So where am I going with this?: Well, there is only one group of businesses in the food chain that is consistently the gainer in all this hype.

And we don't ever hear ANYTHING from that group, either.

So, for fun, which group do you think that might be?

Hint 1: water, water, everywhere, doing business in nearly every country that's been mentioned on this group forum Hint 2: world-wide meat business
Hint 3: "masked" ownership of various businesses in the food chain, ie, operating and doing business under a guise and long list of company names, aka as "subsidiary companies" Hint 4: Big Business, with heavy influence on tariffs, export documentation, customs clearances, cold storage of meat. Hint 5: Lots and lots of "additional Food Miles"
Hint 6: Great advocate of Harmonized Code implementation
Hint 7: Great influence on banking industry
Hint 8: Always get paid for the work they do...and paid a lot
Hint 9: Would starve to death without world trade in meat
Hint 10: Key words: "Blue Star" and "ANZDL" for starters.

That's right, Joyce, it's the Maritime Ocean Reefer/Steamship owners and operators...they are the only ones that have benefited consistently, using shifts in the import/export trade to capitalize on bans, free trade agreements, government-sanctioned quarantines, you name it.

That's the way I see things from Kansas, this beautiful fall day.

All the Best,

Burkie

Originally from: Bill
                        
Thankyou Burkie, that was extremely interesting.

All the best,
Bill.

Originally from: Burkie
                        
Dear Friends: Here's another man's opinion on this:

http://www.commstock.com/Newspaper/2003–0428colm.htm

Copyright 2003 © CommStock Investments, Inc.

David Kruse

Retransmission, copying, or forwarding without permission is Illegal
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Free Trade Agreement of the Americas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Treasury Secretary John Snow told the Brazilians that the U.S. will open its ag markets to Brazil, including the beef market. A Brazilian animal scientist and market analyst estimated the cost of production of Brazilian beef at $13/hrd in an article that came across the newswire. That's pretty cheap. Cheaper than cowboys can work here. The Brazilian beef industry is nothing like the U.S. beef industry. They've barely begun in Brazil to adopt the technology that could bring them enormous productivity. Opening the U.S. market to Brazilian beef would generate an explosion in technology down there. Treasury Secretary John Snow put beef on the table negotiating a Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). This would be the biggest threat faced by the U.S. beef industry since BSE.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The Bush Administration is suddenly blowing kisses Brazil's way intent on pushing FTAA trade talks. The George W. Administration is desperate to get something going on trade and it certainly appears that the decision has been made to sacrifice U.S. agriculture to get the larger process going. It's been done before.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 To show how over the top the Administration has gone, Treasury Secretary Snow even threw out the bone that Brazil would be considered for participation in Iraqi reconstruction saying, "The particular areas would depend much on need, but construction, rebuilding roads and bridges, sanitation, health care, food, and humanitarian needs are among a broad range of areas under assessment." Anybody that's been to Brazil knows that Brazil could use a construction plan of its own. There are plenty of roads, bridges, and the like that need built in Brazil, let alone their having the resources to build them someplace else. What's Snow planning to do, buy food from Brazil and give it to Iraq?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The best thing that could happen to Brazil (and Argentina) is for them to declare war on the U.S., surrender to the first U.S. Marine they can find and sue for reconstruction aid themselves. In no time they'd have the best infrastructure in the world, built by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Brazilians will jump at an opportunity to participate in Iraq, seeing it as an opportunity to milk something from the Americans, which is exactly what Washington wants them to think by extending this offer.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Snow informed Brazilian President LuLa that US Trade Representative Zoellick "was committed to opening up trade in all areas" including agriculture. A Brazilian tractor driver makes $250/month, plus room, board, and a social security contribution. What's he going to buy from us? They can buy most everything they need in Brazil cheaper than from the U.S.; most of it is the same product, produced there by the same companies who produce them here. U.S. agricultural export potential to Brazil is virtually zero. We might be able to sell them a few cranberries. I don't see the U.S. opportunity for trade with Brazil but I see the opportunity for the U.S. to buy from Brazil. Like the WTO agreement with China, the real benefit would go to Wal-Mart. They'd buy all our clothes from China and our food from Brazil.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 When Congress passed trade promotion authority legislation it expressly limited the scope of authority to exclude ag products. Brazil understood this, which is why it backed away from negotiating FTAA. In order for the George W. Administration to widen negotiations to encompass ag products, it has to ignore Congress and lie to U.S. agriculture which gave its support for "fast track" with ag markets excluded.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 There is a huge can of worms being opened up here with potential for gross fabrication of intent with total disregard of commitments made to U.S. agriculture, as it can only be done by breaking promises and assurances given to U.S. producers.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 I believe the George W. Administration will be forced by political constituencies to re-evaluate statements being made by Treasury Secretary Snow, regarding opening U.S. ag markets to Brazil. I know the ag production potential of Brazil, having seen it and studied it first hand. The playing field is not level with too many inherent advantages available to Brazil if U.S. markets are opened to them. Beef would be particularly vulnerable.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Another concern is that a FTAA will make importing Brazilian-made farm equipment acceptable. It will be the incentive for John Deere to aggressively relocate its manufacturing base to Brazil, using it as its export platform. Not only is global food production shifting to Brazil, but the agribusiness industries that support it are going with it. American farmers in Brazil don't feel like they've left home, buying Case-IH tractors, planting Pioneer seed, using Syngenta chemicals, and storing grain in GSI grain bins. When Treasury Secretary John Snow tells the Brazilians "everything is on the table", it's likely to be a Brazilian-made table.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Estimates of the projected trade balance between the U.S. and Brazil being near equal from FTAA are wrong. If U.S. markets are opened to Brazil, U.S. livestock companies, for example, won't argue with folks here anymore about where to locate new buildings. You'll see a wholesale shift in U.S. agriculture to South America from FTAA. U.S. agriculture wasn't supposed to be on the table for negotiation. Somebody's getting a "Snow job," either the Brazilians or us.
 
 
 
 ***********************************
 
 

David Kruse is president of CommStock Investments,Inc., author and producer

of The CommStock Report, an ag commentary and market analysis available daily

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