Re: food production could become a thing of the past

Originally from: David Burnett
                        
World oil production peaked years ago.
In ten to fifteen years time there will not be cheap-enough fuel oil for shipping our food from around the world. Whether the super-markets like it or not we must be more self-sufficient. UK farmers will not "be exposed to the world marketplace" because the world is large and fuel will be too expensive.

World oil reserves are much smaller than we have been told and getting the stuff to the refineries will be increasingly expensive. Think of diesel at £20.oo per gallon just for starters. The Spin-Meisters will leap on these facts and have hysterics, but still they are true.

About a hundred years ago certain people made a decision to run the world on oil, knowing that when it was used to it's limit the world would have little means to replace it. By then they would be rich and dead; either way they would have no problems. Now we are looking at just that situation.

Tony Blair is a politician, it is not politic for him to tell us that the days of cheap air-fares and motoring are well into their evening light. Come to think of it, he hasn't told us the truth about anything lately.
 
Think Clydedale and Percheron for the hard work, and good ponies for getting you around but there are other consequences of all this.
David in Wimborne.
                        

Originally from: David
                        
Farmers will 'soon not grow food' Source: FWi 30 April 2003

By Farmers Weekly staff

TONY BLAIR'S rural advocate has told British farmers that food production could become a thing of the past in some areas.

Countryside Agency chairman Ewen Cameron said farmers had to become more broadly based rural entrepreneurs.

"In many parts of England, food production could become a thing of the past,\x{201D} he said.

"I suspect that in 10 or 20 years time people, and particularly politicians and policy makers, will no longer equate the countryside with farming for food."

Sir Ewen, a Somerset farmer and past president of the Country Landowners' Association, was speaking at the Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester.

His comments echo an agency report called the State of the Countryside 2020.

A triple track approach to agriculture would emerge in the future, he told his audience of former students.

Some farmers would choose to continue to produce basic commodities but they would be exposed to the world market place and its volatility, he said.

This meant they would have to become highly organised businessmen who perhaps co-operated with their neighbours to grow crops over the optimum area of land.

"Anything less than three or four thousand acres for each crop grown will probably not be sufficient," he warned.

"It probably means taking a block of 20,000 acres and planning out the cropping and responsibilities in a very precise and maybe hardhearted way."

Others farmers would decide to keep working on a smaller scale and turn to niche or local markets, said Sir Ewen.

Many of these would probably combine their farming with some kind of alternative enterprise such as tourism.

But the third way forward would involve farmers concentrating on land management with food production becoming very much secondary, he said.

Producers would look at opportunities such as leisure, crops for industry and biomass and land stewardship contracts.

These contracts need not necessarily be with central government or the EU, he said.

"They could be with your local councils or even the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds," he said.

"But very definitely a contract and not a subsidy."

Sir Ewen said if food production did become a thing of the past them it would transform the appearance of the countryside as well as its social makeup.

But farmers and land managers would be at the heart of rural economies.

"In such a brave new world there will be losers as well as winners. Many farmers will find it very hard to become business men and women.

"We must do all we can to ease the pain from the inevitable and essential restructuring of agriculture."

http://www.fwi.co.uk/article.asp?con=10133&sec=18&hier=2
                        

Originally from: brentns
                        

To: ...
Subject: Re: [farmtalking] food production could become a thing of the past
Date: Sun, 4 May 2003 05:44:06 EDT

World oil production peaked years ago.

World production hasn't quite peaked yet.. however some people think it may within the next 5–10 years..some a little further out.. estimates vary.. as usual.. what is certain is at some point it will..
US lower 48 production peaked in 1970..as an example of a "local" peak Uk North Sea passed peak within the last few years i believe.. and is in a fairly steep decline phase.. And Norwegian North Sea shouldn't be too far behind..
These are example of local peaks..

Here's conceptually what it would look like for the world.. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/magoon/

This gives you some idea why one of the few things DEFRA might encourage.. is growing biomass.. for fuel.. This is how it fits in

In ten to fifteen years time there will not be cheap-enough fuel oil for
shipping our food from around the world. Whether the super-markets >like it
or
not we must be more self-sufficient.

UK farmers will not "be exposed to the

Originally from: Bill
                        
Interesting times ahead David.

It's not just oil we are running out of, minerals in the soil are becoming mighty scarce. Scientists are developing GM crops that need a minimum of minerals and this will lead to huge epidemics of mineral deficiency diseases such as cancer, AIDS, diabetes, congenital birth defects of all descriptions.

The likelihood is we will not need all that much oil because there won't be the population to consume it. You will never see it in the newspapers but many scientists are talking quite openly about the need to reduce the World population by half.

Bill.
                        

Originally from: brentns
                        

Subject: Re: [farmtalking] food production could become a thing of the past
Date: Sun, 4 May 2003 07:24:37 EDT

Interesting times ahead David.

It's not just oil we are running out of, minerals in the soil are becoming
mighty scarce. Scientists are developing GM crops that need a minimum of
minerals and this will lead to huge epidemics of mineral deficiency
diseases
such as cancer, AIDS, diabetes, congenital birth defects of all
descriptions.

The likelihood is we will not need all that much oil because there won't be
the population to consume it. You will never see it in the newspapers but
many scientists are talking quite openly about the need to reduce the World
population by half.

Hi Bill,

There's a little talk in the newspapers from the ecologists.. But it generally would not dawn on most people to take it seriously..
More often.. we will have a popular writer like Monbiot.. addressing issues much less directly. but drawing on someone elses views.. without getting into them too explicitly
For example.. in Monbiot's article here http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,865114,00.html
that started the thread below, he references Pimentel

http://www.smartgroups.com/message/viewdiscussion.cfm?gid=774210&messageid=7449

That's why i posted comments in post 5 on this thread.. So people would have a better idea what Pimentel views were..

All the Best
brent